SAISPHERE is published annually by The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of the Johns Hopkins University

A Tall Order for Agriculture

Can a single sector feed the world, reduce poverty and promote economic growth? It is a tough row to hoe, but in the wake of extreme weather, crop failures and high food prices, anxious organizations and nations are turning to agriculture for answers. The task: to roughly double food production by 2050—when the global population is expected to reach 9 billion people—in a reliable, environmentally sustainable way at a reasonable cost.

That will require improving crop yields, managing limited oil and water supplies, developing drought-resistant crops, encouraging aquaculture, increasing production in poor countries, dealing with deforestation, and avoiding conflicts between nations over land and resources.

If agriculture can surmount these and other significant challenges, it will truly plant seeds of change.

A Message from the Dean

Jessica P. Einhorn

When I joined SAIS as dean in June 2002, I was quickly introduced to the summer activity of planning for the next year’s SAISPHERE. Each year in July, a group of us come together to select a topic for the school’s flagship publication that would be of interest to our SAIS community authors and our readers. On my arrival, we initiated an issue on “Leadership,” and then came “Diplomacy” and then “Regions.” In those early years, the annual magazine was a standalone project. But in 2004, when we celebrated SAIS’s 60th anniversary, we discovered the sense of community that comes from sharing a special occasion. It was the seed that sprouted into a new practice during my deanship.

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Features

Global Agriculture: Gaining Ground?

Robert L. Thompson

The world is making strides in achieving global food security. But the race to double farm production and feed everyone by mid-century will demand an international commitment to agricultural and rural development.

Indian Agriculture: Waiting for Reforms

Walter K. Andersen

Agriculture—on which approximately half of the population depends—generally presents a very different picture. With low rates of growth, averaging about 2 percent to 2.5 percent since 1991, and limited investment, this sector remains overregulated and shielded from the global economy. An earlier era of severe food shortages and periodic famines has produced a protective mindset among policymakers; this mindset has led to setting prices for farm commodities, subsidizing inputs and protecting farmers from international price volatility. The effort to protect farmers is reinforced by the political compulsion for votes, which often overrides the notion of agriculture as an engine of growth.

China’s Agricultural Revolution

Pieter Bottelier

China’s burgeoning middle class is spending more on meat, fish, dairy products, fruits and vegetables, sodas, wine, and all sorts of luxury foods and drinks. Rapidly rising household incomes and associated lifestyle and dietary changes are having a major impact on the composition of domestic agricultural output, while reshaping global markets for agricultural commodities such as corn, soybeans, beef and poultry after China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. The changes also are creating new disease patterns in China. For example, childhood obesity is on the rise.

Is Agriculture the Answer?

Marc J. Cohen

After decades of neglect, agriculture is back in a high place on the international development agenda. There is now a broad consensus among development actors that agriculture plays an essential role in economic growth, poverty reduction, conflict resolution and tackling climate change. Nevertheless, controversy swirls around the question of how best to achieve agricultural development, with sharp debates over such issues as land tenure and optimal farm size, as well as what to cultivate and where and how to do so.

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